The 'Shock Wave' of the Fujian PX Explosion on the Textile Industry1

Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. Textile Industry Information: Fujian PX Explosion on Textile Industry“shock wave”. The explosion of the Gulei Petrochemical PX project in Zhangzhou, Fujian has aroused great attention in the upstream and downstream industry chains in recent days, and it has also caused market fluctuations. On April 7, PTA futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose sharply across the board. The two major contracts, 1509 and 1505, both closed at daily limit. Among them, the 1509 contract closed at 4,892 yuan/ton, and the 1505 contract closed at 4,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 %. The polyester disk also rose significantly. In the morning of April 7, the PTA inner disk rose by more than 200 yuan / ton, and the external price of Hengli one-day tour was directly reported to 710 US dollars / ton (disguised sealing), and the semi-light slice was 6500 yuan / ton in the morning (3 Monthly acceptance) transaction price, polyester filament prices have also tried to increase by 100 yuan / ton to 200 yuan / ton according to specifications. In the secondary market, stimulated by this news, Tongkun shares opened the daily limit in just a few minutes on April 7. So, from the perspective of the industry chain, how big is the impact of this incident? Will it cause the procurement of PTA raw materials to be tight? What impact will it have on polyester polyester filament companies in the industry? In this issue, this newspaper specially invited two people from the chemical fiber industry Experts discuss this. Depth If PX takes advantage of this to raise prices, both PTA and polyester will be under pressure Gu Chaoying, a special expert of this newspaper China's PX projects are distributed in many provinces and cities, and the development of China's PX projects is slow due to people's concerns about their own health. China is already the world's largest PX consumer, but China's total PX production capacity is currently only more than 10 million tons. Although the self-sufficiency rate has increased, there is still a certain gap. PX is in an embarrassing situation, but the production capacity gap still exists. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to December 2014, China's PX production was 9.8822 million tons, indicating that the actual effective production reached nearly 10 million tons. Then, China's PX production capacity should at least be It would be logical to reach about 12 million tons. According to customs statistics, from January to December 2014, the domestic import of PX reached 9.8223 million tons, the export was 103,500 tons, the newly added resources (production + imports) were 19.7045 million tons, and the net increase in resources (new resources - exports, namely Apparent demand) 19.601 million tons, which shows that the market demand of China's PX industry is relatively strong. It can also be seen from this set of figures that China's PX capacity gap still exists, and it is still necessary to continue to increase some PX capacity in the future. The important reason for the gap in PX production capacity is that the downstream PTA industry of PX in China is developing rapidly. During the period from 2007 to 2014, the annual compound growth rate of China's PTA production capacity was 18% to 20%, and China has become the world's largest PTA producer and consumer. By the end of 2014, the domestic PTA production capacity was about 43.35 million tons. It is estimated that the new domestic PTA production capacity will be about 6.65 million tons in 2015, and the total production capacity will reach 50 million tons. The PTA production capacity growth rate is still as high as 15.3%. There is no doubt that the domestic PTA demand for PX is huge. But at present, the most tangled thing for people in the industry is: on the one hand, PX is in a very embarrassing situation, because the new project is not particularly smooth, it will be interfered by some external factors, and it cannot significantly improve its socially effective production capacity; on the other hand On the one hand, downstream PTA manufacturers have strong demand for raw materials due to the rapid expansion of production capacity in recent years. Although downstream PTA manufacturers are well aware that the polyester industry chain has been in a downturn, they are still unwilling to significantly reduce the operating rate of equipment, or even stop production. excess situation. Due to the rapid expansion of PTA production capacity, the import dependence of PTA has also continued to decline rapidly. PTA may face“swamp”Situation Gulei Tenglong aromatics PX production capacity accounts for about 12% of China's total PX production capacity, and the accident is bound to have a direct impact on the normal supply of PX. The needs of some contract users cannot be met normally. These contract users have to go to the spot market to purchase raw materials, or find other domestic PX manufacturers for sources, or rely on imported raw materials.