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The 'Shock Wave' of the Fujian PX Explosion on the Textile Industry
Textile Industry Information: The 'shock wave' of the Fujian PX explosion on the textile industry. The explosion of the Gulei Petrochemical PX project in Zhangzhou, Fujian has aroused great concern in the upstream and downstream industry chains in recent days, and has also caused market fluctuations. On April 7, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA futures rose sharply across the board. The two main contracts 1509 and 1505 both closed at daily limit. Among them, the 1509 contract closed at 4892 yuan/ton, and the 1505 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 %. The polyester disk also rose significantly. The PTA inner disk rose by more than 200 yuan/ton in the morning on April 7th, and the price of the Hengli one-day tour on the outer disk was directly quoted at US$710/ton (disguised and closed), and the semi-gloss slice had already been 6500 yuan/ton in the morning (3 According to the transaction price of monthly acceptance), the price of polyester filament also increased by 100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton in different specifications. In the secondary market, stimulated by this news, Tongkun shares opened the daily limit in just a few minutes on April 7. So, from the perspective of the industry chain, how big is the impact of the incident? Will it cause tight purchases of PTA raw materials? What impact will it have on polyester filament companies in the industry? In this issue, this newspaper invites two chemical fiber industries Experts discuss this. If PX take advantage of this price increase, PTA and polyester will be under pressure. our newspaper special expert Gu Chaoying China's PX projects are distributed in many provinces and cities, due to public concerns about their own health, the slow development of China's PX projects. China is already the world's largest PX consumer, but China's total PX production capacity is currently only more than 10 million tons. Although the self-sufficiency rate has increased, there is still a certain gap. PX is in an embarrassing situation but there is still a capacity gap. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, from January to December 2014, China’s PX production was 9,882,200 tons, indicating that the actual effective production volume reached nearly 10 million tons. Then, China’s PX production capacity is at least It is logical to reach about 12 million tons. According to customs statistics, from January to December 2014, domestic imports of PX reached 9,822,300 tons, exports of 103,500 tons, new resources (production + imports) 19,704,500 tons, and a net increase in resources (new resources-exports, namely Apparent demand) 19.601 million tons, which shows that the market demand of China's PX industry is relatively strong. It can also be seen from this set of figures that China’s PX production capacity gap is still obvious, and it is still necessary to continue to increase a part of PX production capacity in the future. The main reason for the gap in PX production capacity is that the downstream PTA industry of China's PX is developing rapidly. From 2007 to 2014, the compound annual growth rate of China's PTA production capacity was 18%-20%, and China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of PTA. As of the end of 2014, the domestic PTA production capacity was about 43.35 million tons. It is estimated that the domestic PTA new capacity will be about 6.65 million tons in 2015, and the total production capacity will reach 50 million tons. The growth rate of PTA production capacity is still as high as 15.3%. There is no doubt that the domestic PTA's demand for PX is huge. But at present, what makes people in the industry feel most entangled is: On the one hand, PX is in a very awkward position, because the new project is not particularly smooth, and it will be interfered by some external factors, and it will not be able to significantly increase its social effective production capacity; on the other hand, On the one hand, downstream PTA manufacturers have had a strong demand for raw materials because of their rapid capacity expansion in recent years. Although downstream PTA manufacturers know that the polyester industry chain has been in a sluggish market, they are still unwilling to significantly reduce the operating rate of equipment or even stop production. They still hope to take a fight in the cruel market, which has also led to PTA production capacity. The situation of excess. Due to the rapid expansion of PTA production capacity, the dependence on PTA imports has continued to decline rapidly. PTA may face a 'swamp' situation Gulei Tenglong aromatics PX production capacity accounts for about 12% of China's total PX production capacity, the accident is bound to have a direct impact on the normal supply of PX. The needs of some contract users cannot be met normally, and these contract users have to go to the spot market to purchase raw materials, or find other domestic PX manufacturers to obtain sources, or rely on imported raw materials. If other manufacturers take advantage of this to increase the PX sales price, then downstream PTA will once again face the 'swamp' situation where upstream raw material prices remain high and downstream companies' demand is not ideal. In fact, China’s PTA operating rate has been at a relatively low level in recent years. The price of PTA products has entered a downward channel since the fourth quarter of 2011, and the industry’s prosperity index has continued to be sluggish. Since the second half of 2012, domestic PTA companies have been losing money most of the time, and only a few months have seen small profits. Overall, the loss months accounted for more than half of the time. Domestic PTA manufacturers are under great sales pressure, especially large factories with huge PTA production capacity, and they face greater financial pressure.
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