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Brazil cotton becomes the final winner in the trade war
Brazil's cotton imports increase sharply. Once China imposes a 25% tariff on US cotton imports, the trade flow will shift to Brazil, India and Australia, and the share of US cotton imports in China's cotton imports will drop significantly. China imported 1.37 million tons of cotton in 2017/18, of which US cotton imported 540,000 tons, accounting for 39% of total imports; Australia imported 340,000 tons, accounting for 25% of total imports; India imported 165,000 tons, accounting for total imports 12% of imports; Brazil imports 88,000 tons, accounting for 6% of total imports. Brazilian cotton is replacing U.S. cotton as China's largest importer of cotton. Affected by the trade war, the share of U.S. cotton imports fell rapidly from 39% in 17/18 to 13%, while Brazil's share rose sharply from 6% to 33%. U.S. cotton exports expand to Southeast Asia At present, the main exporters of U.S. cotton are Vietnam, China, Indonesia and Turkey, with export shares of 23.83%, 16.24%, 8.52%, and 7.99% respectively. Among them, Vietnam is the largest export market for U.S. cotton. Due to the trade war, the number of China's contracts has decreased significantly recently and the contract has been broken continuously. It is expected that the export of US cotton will continue to shift to Vietnam, Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia. The impact of the trade war on the textile and garment industry my country is the world's largest producer and exporter of textiles and garments. According to customs statistics, in 2018, my country’s total exports of textiles and clothing totaled 276.731 billion U.S. dollars, of which textile exports totaled 119.098 billion U.S. dollars and clothing cumulative exports were 157.633 billion U.S. dollars. From January to April 2019, my country's total textile and apparel exports totaled USD 75.764 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.86%. Among them, textile exports amounted to 36.672 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.91%; clothing exports amounted to 39.092 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.63%. If the trade war continues to escalate, it will have a direct impact on my country's textile and apparel exports. my country's textile and apparel exporting countries mainly include the European Union, the United States, Japan, Vietnam, etc., of which the United States is China's largest exporter of China's textiles and apparel, accounting for 17.2% of my country's total textile and apparel exports in 2018. 200 billion U.S. dollars of export tax increases have a small impact. The 200 billion U.S. dollars involved cotton, knitted crocheted fabrics, hats, leather products, etc. The products involved in the list were exported to the U.S. in 2018, accounting for 21.2 U.S. %, accounting for 3.3% of China’s total textile and apparel exports. Therefore, the United States has imposed a 25% tax increase on China’s 200 billion US dollars of exports, which has little impact on the domestic textile industry, and the impact on cotton demand is about 100,000 tons. The impact of tax increases on exports of 300 billion US dollars will increase. If a tax on 300 billion US dollars of Chinese exports is imposed, it will cover all textiles and clothing exported to the United States. The total amount will reach 47.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 17% of China’s total textile and clothing exports. The demand impact is about 1 million tons, accounting for about 11.7% of my country's cotton consumption. Therefore, if taxes on exports of US$300 billion are increased, downstream textile demand will continue to weaken. Once tax increases on US$300 billion worth of Chinese exports, Southeast Asian countries will gradually replace China’s share of the US textile and apparel supply. For the United States, China is the largest supplier of textiles and clothing to the United States, accounting for 50% of the US textile and clothing imports and 30% of the cotton textiles and clothing. The major importers of cotton textiles in the United States include India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc. The Sino-US trade war has given Southeast Asian countries a greater competitive advantage in textile exports. Summary and Prospects The impact of the trade war includes changes in the trade flow of raw materials and downstream textiles and garments. For China, Brazil will squeeze the share of U.S. cotton imports and become my country’s main cotton supplier; as China’s demand decreases, U.S. cotton exports will expand to Southeast Asian countries. The increase of 200 billion tariffs will have a small impact on domestic cotton, while the 300 billion tariffs involving all textiles and clothing will have a greater impact on the downstream domestic textiles, and the impact on domestic cotton demand is about 1 million tons. Under the influence of the trade war, Brazil's cotton exports are relatively good, and it is expected that cotton production will continue to grow substantially in the later period. The export of US cotton will remain weak. With the expectation of a 20% increase in US cotton production in 19/20, it will increase the pressure on later sales. my country's cotton demand side will continue to weaken, and the Southeast Asian textile industry will have greater competitiveness. 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