Market Analysis: Textile Industry Continues to Be Under Pressure in 2016

Textile Industry Information: Market Analysis: The textile industry continued to be under pressure in 2016. Since last year, the production of the textile industry has continued to decline, domestic consumption has continued to slump, and exports have fallen overall compared with the previous year. In 2016, there are not only positive factors such as the expected improvement of the global economy, but also unfavorable factors such as domestic macroeconomic downturn and sluggish domestic demand. However, on the whole, my country's labor difficulties, overcapacity, environmental protection pressure and other issues will still restrict the development of the textile industry. The downward pressure on industrial production will continue to increase. Production growth will further decline From the perspective of the growth rate of industrial added value, the added value of the textile industry increased by 6.6% in the first three quarters of 2015, and the growth rate continued to slow down, down 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year respectively. In terms of different industries, the slowdown in the growth rate of the textile industry is mainly due to the obvious decline in the textile and apparel industry, which only increased by 4.7% year-on-year, while the textile industry and chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% and 11.1% year-on-year respectively. In terms of output of main products, the growth rate of yarn dropped, while the growth rate of chemical fiber and cloth increased. In the first three quarters of 2015, chemical fiber, cloth and yarn increased by 10.9%, 3.3% and 4.7% year-on-year respectively. Entering 2016, the downward pressure on the domestic economy will increase, the growth of consumer demand will also slow down, and the growth rate of textile industry production is not optimistic. From the perspective of the global economy, my country's textile industry exports will pick up. According to the IMF forecast, the global GDP growth rate in 2016 was 3.6%, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than that in 2015. Among them, the economic growth rates of the EU, the United States and Japan, the key regions of my country's textile exports, were expected to be 2.8%, 1.9% and 1.0% respectively in 2016. %, compared with 2015, there are different degrees of recovery. However, the focus of my country's textile industry growth is domestic. IMF predicts that my country's domestic economy in 2016 is expected to slow down by 0.5 percentage points compared with 2015. The textile industry is facing the problem of overcapacity, and the overcapacity situation is increasing, especially the chemical fiber industry, which drags down the profit margin of the textile industry. With the support of the policy, enterprises have expanded their factories and purchased equipment one after another. Most of the newly purchased equipment is imported world-class production equipment, and the production capacity and level of the enterprise have been rapidly improved. However, under the background that the market demand structure is difficult to change in the short term, the rapid expansion of production of textile enterprises, especially the launch of high-end production lines, has caused most high-end equipment to produce products with low added value and low capacity utilization. According to research, among the first-class cotton spinning production lines newly built by the company at home and abroad, the products are still mainly 30-40 yarns, and due to the sluggish market, some companies have not fully started. It is expected that in 2016, the growth rate of textile industry production will be reduced to about 6.0%. Among them, benefiting from the decline in raw material prices and the rebound in the growth rate of export orders, the production growth rate of the textile industry and chemical fiber industry will be higher than this year, while the production growth rate of textile and clothing will be further reduced due to the sluggish domestic demand and high inventory factors. Exports may show positive growth In the first three quarters of 2015, my country's exports were extremely pessimistic, reflecting the slowdown in the international economy and import demand, which increased the variables of global economic and trade growth in 2016. From January to September 2015, the export delivery value of the textile industry decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 5.6 and 4.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year and the whole year of last year, respectively. The export situation is relatively severe. Among the sub-sectors, exports of the textile industry, textile and apparel industry, and chemical fiber industry all declined year-on-year, down 4.1, 1.0 and 8.7 percentage points respectively. In 2016, the export growth rate of my country's textile industry will rebound, showing a positive growth trend. On the one hand, the economic situation of the three traditional export markets of the United States, the European Union and Japan has improved, and import demand has increased. On the other hand, the economic growth rate of emerging and developing countries has increased, which has brought huge growth space for my country's consumer goods exports. According to the IMF's forecast, the global import demand for goods in 2016 increased by 4.1%, which was 1.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate in 2015. Among them, the import demand for goods in developed economies, emerging markets and developing countries increased by 4.0% and 4.3%, respectively, higher than that in 2015. The annual growth rate was 0.3 and 2.8 percentage points. It is expected that in 2016, the growth rate of export delivery value of the textile industry will rebound to about 2%. The export growth rate of the three sub-sectors will rebound to positive numbers, among which the export growth rate of textile and apparel industry and chemical fiber industry is more obvious. Investment growth slowed down In 2015, the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy was withdrawn, the accelerated depreciation policy was extended to the textile industry, coupled with factors such as the acceleration of industrial transfer, the growth rate of investment in the textile industry showed a structural differentiation trend. Industrial investment continued to grow rapidly, and the chemical fiber industry continued to grow at a low growth rate. From January to September 2015, the investment in the textile industry, textile and garment industry and chemical fiber industry increased by 13.6%, 25.4% and 0.4% year-on-year respectively, of which the growth rate of investment in the textile industry and textile and garment industry was 1.0 and 7.2 percentage points higher than last year. The chemical fiber industry was 2.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
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