The shadow of China's textile and apparel exports under the trade war1

In the first quarter of this year, China's exports to the United States accounted for 16.7% of the total exports of textiles and clothing, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. From the perspective of export structure, clothing exports are the mainstay, supplemented by textile exports. In the first quarter, clothing exports accounted for 70.7%, and textile exports accounted for 29.3%. China and the United States have a huge trade surplus in textile and apparel trade. In the first quarter, China's textile and apparel trade volume totaled US$293.15 billion, of which exports were US$9.61 billion and imports were US$180 million, with a cumulative trade surplus of US$9.43 billion. The Sino-US trade friction is a hot spot that companies are paying close attention to at this Canton Fair. At present, textile and apparel products are not in the list of goods subject to additional tariffs in the first round, but in the second round of lists issued by China and the United States, products related to the textile industry appear. If the trade friction continues to escalate, the textile industry may be affected to a certain extent in the second half of the year. According to data from the US Department of Commerce, from January to February 2018, the top four exporters of textiles and clothing to the US were China, Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh, accounting for 35.8%, 10.9%, 6.9%, and 5% respectively. At present, China still has an absolute advantage. As the second largest textile and apparel import market in the United States, Vietnam is most likely to undertake order transfer due to its relatively complete industrial facilities, low production costs, and abundant labor. The Sino-US trade friction will enable Vietnam to occupy favorable conditions and snatch orders for China's textile and apparel exports to the United States, which is a serious challenge to Chinese textile and apparel enterprises. Most exhibitors believe that considering the interests of domestic buyers in the United States, the United States will not add textiles and clothing to the list of additional tariffs. The U.S. textile industry has already shrunk seriously, hitting Chinese textile imports and not directly helping the U.S. manufacturing industry. And China, as the country with the most complete textile and garment industry chain, no country in the world can compete with it. In addition, with the acceleration of the global layout of China's textile industry, many Chinese enterprises have been deployed in Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam in recent years. Even if the United States imposes taxes on imported Chinese textiles, the impact on such enterprises will be limited. Judging from the easing of the Sino-US trade friction atmosphere, as the business negotiations between China and the United States begin, the trade war is not expected to continue to expand. After all, Trump is also under huge pressure in the United States, although Trump The tariff trade war seems to be able to protect local products in the United States and increase employment opportunities. However, from the perspective of international supply chains, markets and costs, the United States closed its doors to prevent foreign products from entering, and also prevented the inflow of its own products to other countries. Channels, so Tariff trade is mutual, and the United States cannot reduce the damage to itself. In this regard, the Sino-US trade station will not continue to intensify. At present, the market is generally worried that the trend of China's textile and apparel industry is not clear in the second half of the year, and it is also predicting the solution to the Sino-US trade friction. The United States cannot lose the Chinese market, nor can China lose the American market. With such an attitude to see the trading post, you can grasp the overall situation. The Sino-US textile trade friction has a long history. In the most difficult time, it did not stop the development of China's textile industry, but accelerated the upgrading of China's textile industry. In the face of Sino-US trade frictions, enterprises should speed up their transformation and upgrading, strengthen themselves, spot the general trend, and enhance their ability to resist risks.

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