Market analysis: the textile industry continues to be under pressure in 2016

Standard Group Textile Industry News: Market Analysis: The textile industry continues to be under pressure in 2016. Since last year, the textile industry's production has continued to decline, domestic consumption has continued to be sluggish, and exports have dropped overall compared to the previous year. In 2016, there were both positive factors such as the expected improvement of the global economy, and unfavorable factors such as the domestic macroeconomic downturn and sluggish domestic demand. However, overall, my country’s labor difficulties, overcapacity, environmental pressure and other issues will still restrict the development of the textile industry. The downward pressure on industrial production will continue to increase.　　　　Production growth rate will decline further. 　　 From the perspective of industrial added value growth rate, the textile industry added value increased by 6.6% in the first three quarters of 2015, and the growth rate continued to slow down, down 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　。 In terms of different industries, the slowdown in the textile industry's growth rate was mainly due to the obvious decline in the textile, apparel and apparel industry, which only increased by 4.7% year-on-year, while the textile industry and chemical fiber manufacturing increased by 7.2% and 11.1% year-on-year respectively. In terms of the output of main products, the growth rate of yarn has fallen, while the growth rate of chemical fiber and cloth has increased. In the first three quarters of 2015, chemical fiber, cloth and yarn increased by 10.9%, 3.3% and 4.7% year-on-year respectively.　　 Entering 2016, the downward pressure on the domestic economy has increased, the growth of consumer demand will also slow down, and the growth rate of textile industry production is not optimistic. From the perspective of the global economy, my country's textile industry exports will pick up. According to IMF forecasts, the global GDP growth rate in 2016 was 3.6%, 0.5 percentage points higher than in 2015. Among them, the EU, the United States and Japan, the key regions of my country’s textile exports, are expected to grow at 2.8%, 1.9% and 1.0 respectively in 2016. %, compared with 2015, there are different degrees of recovery. However, the focus of my country's textile industry growth lies in the country. The IMF predicts that my country's domestic economic growth in 2016 is expected to slow down by 0.5% compared with 2015.　　 The textile industry is facing the problem of overcapacity, and the surplus situation is increasing, especially the chemical fiber industry, which drags down the profitability of the textile industry. With the support of the policy, enterprises have expanded their factories and purchased equipment one after another. Most of the newly purchased equipment is imported world-class production equipment, and the company's production capacity and level have rapidly improved. However, under the background that the market demand structure is difficult to change in the short term, the rapid expansion of textile production, especially the launch of high-end production lines, has caused most high-end equipment to produce low-value-added products with low capacity utilization. According to investigations, among the first-class domestic and international cotton spinning production lines newly built by enterprises, the main products are still 30-40 yarns, and due to the market downturn, some enterprises have not fully started operations.　　It is estimated that the growth rate of textile industry production in 2016 will drop to about 6.0%. Among them, benefiting from the decline in raw material prices and the rebound in export order growth, the production growth rate of the textile and chemical fiber industries will be higher than this year. However, the production growth rate of textile and apparel will be further reduced due to the sluggish domestic demand and high inventory factors.　　　　Exports may show positive growth　　In the first three quarters of 2015, my country’s exports were extremely pessimistic, reflecting the slowdown in the international economy and import demand, and increasing the variables of the global economic and trade growth in 2016. 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　。　　 From January to September 2015, the export delivery value of the textile industry fell by 2.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 5.6 and 4.8 percentage points from the same period last year and the whole year of last year. The export situation was relatively severe. Among the subdivided industries, exports of textile, textile and apparel, and chemical fiber industries all declined year-on-year, down 4.1, 1.0 and 8.7 percentage points respectively.　　 Entering 2016, my country's textile industry export growth rate will rebound, showing a positive growth trend. On the one hand, the economic situation of the three traditional export markets of the United States, the European Union, and Japan improved, and import demand increased. On the other hand, the economic growth of emerging countries and developing countries has increased, which has brought huge room for growth in my country's consumer goods exports. According to IMF forecasts, global import demand for goods increased by 4.1% in 2016, 1.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate in 2015. Among them, the demand for goods import in advanced economies, emerging markets and developing countries increased by 4.0% and 4.3%, respectively, higher than 2015. The annual growth rate was 0.3 and 2.8 percentage points.　　It is predicted that the growth rate of export delivery value of the textile industry in 2016 will rebound to about 2%. The export growth rate of the three sub-sectors will rebound to a positive number, of which the export growth rate of the textile, apparel and apparel industry and chemical fiber industry will be more obvious. Investment growth slowed down In 2015, the temporary cotton purchasing and storage policy was withdrawn, and the accelerated depreciation policy was extended to the textile industry. Coupled with the acceleration of industrial transfer and other factors, the investment growth of the textile industry showed a trend of structural differentiation. Among them, the textile industry, textile apparel and apparel Industry investment continued to grow at a high rate, and the chemical fiber industry continued to grow at a low rate. From January to September 2015, the investment in the textile industry, textile and clothing industry, and chemical fiber industry increased by 13.6%, 25.4%, and 0.4% respectively year-on-year. The growth rate of investment in the textile industry and textile and clothing industry was 1.0 and 7.2 percentage points higher than last year. The chemical fiber industry was 2.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year.　　 Entering 2016, the scale of investment in fixed assets in the textile industry will continue to expand, but due to poor market expectations, investment growth will slow down. On the one hand, as my country's economic growth is in the three phases of 'growth speed shift period, structural adjustment pain period, and early stimulus policy digestion periodOn the other hand, under the background of the new normal, the downward pressure on the macro economy has increased, the uncertainty and risks of investment in the textile industry have further increased, and the confidence of entrepreneurs is insufficient.　

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