Sino-US trade friction accelerates the upgrading of our textile industry1

The Sino-US trade friction has caused our textile exports to be significantly hindered. While export costs are increasing, we are also gradually eliminating outdated production capacity to speed up industrial upgrading and transformation. The Sino-US trade friction upgrade will accelerate the adjustment of my country's textile and apparel export structure and the industrial chain to Southeast Asia. etc. to transfer. In the first quarter, my country's textile and apparel exports were 385.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Among them, the export of textiles was 183.87 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3%; the export of clothing was 201.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.6%.“In January of this year, the export value of textile clothing hit a new high since September last year. Influenced by the Spring Festival‘grab the exit’As a result, the export value of textile garments was slashed in half in February, hitting a new low since February 2017. In March, textile and apparel exports were strong, reversing the double-digit decline in exports in the first two months, strongly driving the recovery of overall exports in the first quarter and showing a slight increase.”Yu Xiaohong, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that in the first quarter, the export fluctuated violently in each month, but the overall export of textiles and clothing still showed a good development trend.“In the context of the slowdown in global economic and trade, China's textile and apparel exports will continue to be under pressure. In the first quarter, overseas purchasers wait and see, and some large international purchasers adjust their strategic layout and require Chinese production and processing enterprises to transfer part of their production capacity to Southeast Asia and other places in advance.”Yu Xiaohong said that in the future, clothing exports may continue to decline, and the corresponding textile exports of raw materials in the supply chain are expected to catch up with clothing exports. At present, my country's textile and apparel market is relatively dependent on exports. According to incomplete statistics, in 2018, my country's textile and apparel exports exceeded 270 billion US dollars, while the domestic textile and clothing retail sales were around 200 billion US dollars. The United States is my country's largest exporter of textiles and garments, of which pure cotton textiles and garments exported to the United States account for about 17% of my country's total exports of pure cotton textiles and garments.“The United States imposes tariffs on textiles and clothing, which will directly increase the export cost of my country's textiles and clothing and weaken the price competitiveness of related products.”The relevant analysts of Zhongyu Information said that in recent years, the textile and apparel industry in Southeast Asian countries, mainly Vietnam, has developed rapidly, and in the future, it will have a high probability of occupying some of China's textile and apparel market share exported to the United States. The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions also directly accelerated the devaluation of the RMB. In the one month since Trump announced the tax hike in April, the yuan has depreciated from 6.7 to around 6.9 against the dollar. Since the beginning of the Sino-US trade friction in March 2018, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has depreciated from 6.3 to around 6.9. Relevant analysts of Zhongyu Information reminded that currency devaluation can temporarily benefit product exports, but the previous sharp depreciation of currencies in Argentina, Turkey and other countries against the US dollar triggered a financial crisis, resulting in a deterioration of the economic situation, and the long-term impact of rapid currency depreciation on the market should not be underestimated. . At present, the structural adjustment of my country's textile and garment industry is accelerating. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross profit of my country's textile and garment industry dropped from 12.14% at the end of 2012 to 10.16% at the end of 2018. Under the general trend of continuous rise in labor costs and environmental protection costs, the textile and garment industry has seen a continuous decline in gross profit margins. In 2018, the gross profit margin fell to the lowest point in the past 10 years. The number of textile enterprises above designated size with an annual revenue of 20 million yuan also dropped from more than 22,000 in March 2011 to more than 19,000 at the end of 2018. The fierce competition has accelerated textile enterprises“go small and stay big”And the trend of factory relocation.