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Foreign trade data released in the first three quarters, export growth is obvious

by:GESTER Instruments     2021-05-25
In the first three quarters, in RMB terms, China’s total import and export of goods was 22.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. Among them, exports were 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, and imports were 10.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.1%; the surplus was 1.43 trillion yuan, a decrease of 28.3%. The total exports of seven categories of labor-intensive products, including clothing and toys, totaled 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, accounting for 19.3% of total exports. The      report emphasized that the current Sino-US economic and trade friction has limited impact and the overall risk is controllable. In the first three quarters, China’s imports and exports to the United States were 3.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, accounting for 13.8% of China’s total foreign trade. The United States was still China’s second largest trading partner. Among them, China's exports to the United States were 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; the imports from the United States were 798.13 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%. From the data point of view, Sino-US trade is still growing. The export situation of      in the textile and apparel sector is basically consistent with the overall situation. According to Customs Express data, from January to September, my country’s total textile and apparel exports (excluding Chapter 94) were US$207.77 billion, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.7 percentage points from the same period last year, and continued to accelerate by 1.3 percentage points from the first half of this year. .     The latest data show that according to customs statistics, the national textile and apparel exports in October totaled USD 23.257 billion, an increase of 7.33% year-on-year (in RMB, an increase of 11.57%). Among them, textile exports that month were 9.744 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5.88% (in RMB terms, an increase of 10.04%); clothing exports that month US$ 13.513 billion, achieving a year-on-year increase of 8.4% (in RMB terms, an increase of 12.70%), continuing to maintain since the second half of the year Growth trend.     From January to October this year, the country’s total textile and apparel exports totaled 230.805 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.77% (in RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.48%). Among them, the total textile exports totaled 98.972 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9.91% (in RMB terms, a year-on-year growth of 5.2%), and the growth rate was 0.54% lower than that from January to September, which was a slight slowdown; the total clothing exports totaled US$131.834 billion, a year-on-year increase 1.22% (decreased by 2.79% year-on-year in RMB). In terms of export markets, from January to September, my country’s exports of textile materials, textiles and clothing to the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 8.5%, 3.4% and 4.8% year-on-year, respectively. The growth rate of exports to the United States increased by 9.1 percentage points from the same period last year; Countries along the “Belt and Road” such as Vietnam, Turkey, and Indonesia have experienced good growth in their exports, with their exports increasing by 30%, 5.7% and 21.6% year-on-year respectively.     According to the analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation Report (Autumn 2018), the growth is mainly due to the following factors. First, the domestic market demand in the United States has grown. Since 2018, the U.S. economy has maintained rapid growth, the unemployment rate has dropped to a record low in decades, residents' consumption confidence has increased, and business investment confidence has risen, and the overall domestic market demand has been relatively strong, driving the rapid growth of demand for imported goods. In the first eight months, U.S. merchandise imports increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 3 percentage points higher than the same period in 2017. Correspondingly, the US market's import demand for Chinese goods is also expanding.     The second is that the Sino-US industrial chain is closely linked. On the whole, China has a complete industrial chain, strong manufacturing capabilities, and high cost-effective products. The United States has advanced science and technology, abundant resources, high per capita income, and the bilateral economic structure is highly complementary, and there are many potential trade opportunities. Market choices have allowed the two countries to form 'I am in you and you in me' pattern of interests. Especially for American consumers, Chinese products are of high quality and low price, making them the first choice for daily consumer goods.     The third is the performance of contracts by import and export enterprises. In international trade, there is generally a time lag of several months or even longer from signing the contract to the actual import and export. After the United States imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, most of the contracts signed by the companies of both sides continued to perform, making import and export data basically stable. In particular, to prepare for sales during the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, companies stock up in advance to support bilateral trade. The      report believes that the current international market demand is relatively stable, domestic import demand is growing steadily, and China’s foreign trade has the basic conditions to maintain steady growth. The rapid growth of imports and exports in the first three quarters provided strong support for the growth of foreign trade throughout the year. However, the high import and export base in the fourth quarter of 2017 will have a certain negative impact on the growth rate of import and export in the fourth quarter of 2018. The      report pointed out that China’s foreign trade development will face a more severe and complex environment in 2019, the downside risks of the world economy will increase, and protectionism threatens the steady growth of global trade. At present, the fundamentals of my country's foreign trade development are sound, and the policy environment is constantly improving, which contains new development potential. We must actively cultivate new trade formats and models, and strive to maintain stable foreign trade development and quality improvement.
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