The epidemic continues to escalate, and the crude oil market is volatile

1) According to FX168's weekly crude oil survey, 20% of analysts are bullish and 80% bearish on the trend of oil prices this week. Crude oil strategist Julian Lee also wrote in an analysis that the next move for oil prices may be a fall. The performance of the weak US dollar this week has pushed back the performance of commodity prices, superimposed on the landing of the EU recovery fund; at the same time, OPEC+ is about to ease production curbs, and crude oil production in North America has also shown signs of recovery. Oil workers have begun to resume work, new oil wells have been put into production, and they have been idle during the epidemic. drilling has also resumed. These factors have kept crude oil prices in the upper and lower regions of 40 to consolidate their strength. On the other hand, there have also been problems with crude oil demand. The demand of major crude oil consuming countries such as the United States has slowed down. According to overseas media reports, it can be seen from the recent statements of Fed officials that Fed officials will discuss how to provide more stimulus for the economy at the Fed decision next week. These plans may be in September or this fall. Announced at a later meeting, but until further understanding of the impact of the epidemic on the U.S. economy, they can accept that existing policies remain unchanged; 5 days are counted down, and unemployment benefits for 31.8 million people will be zero, but the United States is bipartisan No conclusion has been given yet, whether to delay or stop; the hurricane on the 25th local time“Hannah”The landing will further complicate the epidemic prevention situation in Texas; the recovery of ground transportation in various countries and states is uneven, and the recovery of the aviation industry has also stalled. All of this suggests that the next move for oil prices may be down rather than up. This week's attention: Monday 09:30 Profit amount of China's industrial enterprises above designated size in June; 09:30 Annual profit rate of China's industrial enterprises above designated size in June; Tuesday and next day 04:30 Changes in API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ended July 24; Changes in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ended July 24 at 22:30 on Wednesday; 02:00 the next day the Fed announces its interest rate decision (no dot plot); 02:30 the next day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference; Thursday 20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ended July 25; 20:30 US continuing jobless claims for the week ended July 18; Friday 09:00 China's July official manufacturing PMI. 2) Recently, the transaction of polyester fabrics in the traditional market of China Textile City has declined, the transaction of summer imitation silk fabrics with polyester filament as the main raw material has declined, and the transaction of summer thin fabrics has dropped sharply. Recently, the overall market transaction volume of polyester imitation silk fabrics has decreased compared with the previous period, and the transaction prices have been stable and falling. The transaction of autumn fashion fabrics and jacket casual fabrics with polyester filament as the main raw material showed a slight growth trend, and the prices were basically stable. Due to the decline in the transaction of thin fabrics in summer, the overall market transaction of autumn fabrics is still relatively limited, resulting in insufficient transactions in the overall market. 3) According to the price monitoring of Sunshine, there are 5 commodities in the textile sector in the 29th week of 2020 (7.20-7.24) in the commodity price rise and fall list, and the top 3 commodities are lint (1.15%), PTA ( 0.69%), polyester FDY (0.57%). There were 7 kinds of commodities that decreased month-on-month, and the top 3 products were viscose staple fiber (-1.68%), cotton yarn 21S (-1.67%), cotton yarn 32S (-1.22%). This week's average change was -0.23%. On July 26, the textile index was 685 points, the same as yesterday. The PTA commodity index was 34.76, the same as yesterday; the polyester staple commodity index was 52.52 on July 26, the same as yesterday; the spandex commodity index was 70.68 on July 26, the same as yesterday; the cotton yarn 21S commodity index was 82.78 on July 26 , the same as yesterday.